As you may have noticed, The Hannibal Blog has been unusually quiet for a couple of days. That’s because I had to move the family to a new city, as part of my new beat at The Economist. Well, I’ve moved a good dozen times in my life, as has my wife, so we have more than a score of moves between us. We’re pros. Except not.
This was our first move with children. (If you don’t have any, you don’t know why I would bother to point this out.)
Now, as regular readers know, The Hannibal Blog can be relied upon to put forth profound analysis of important things; or, depending on availability, profound analysis of things; or, barring that, analysis of things.
So let me put forth a tentative theory of failure:
- The probability of failure increases with the number of permutations (see: complexity).
- Once the number of permutations rises above eight or nine, failure is assured.
- Thereafter, the devastation of the failure increases with the number of permutations.
- Eventually (this is the only good news) it doesn’t matter anymore, or seems not to.
PS: You obviously got me on that kind of day. For a more illuminating theory of failure (and success), wait for the book. 😉